BGS GeoClimate UKCP18 Premium indicates potential change in subsidence due to changes in climate for Great Britain. The product considers climate projections and the associated changes in soil moisture in clay soils, alongside the geotechnical properties of the ground to provide long term, modelled analysis for resilience assessments.

BGS GeoClimate UKCP18 Premium is quasi-1:50 000-scale, vector polygon data (due to the variable scales of input datasets). It provides a historical period (1990 (1985–1995) and two projected periods centred on 2030 (2025-2035) and 2070 (2065-205), is based on UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), and indicates projections for average, wetter and drier climate conditions. For each scenario it describes five categories of projected susceptibility, from highly unlikely to extremely likely for each 2km pixel.

Shrink-swell is recognised as the costliest geohazard across Great Britain. Identifying areas of potential increased risk will be useful for architects and surveyors, planners, developers, consulting engineers, builders, construction companies, utility companies, loss adjusters, the insurance industry and those with responsibilities for road/rail infrastructure. Anyone who may have to develop mitigation strategies to prioritise works and minimise risk.

BGS GeoClimate Premium is provided as vector area polygons in SHP and GDB formats.