BGS GeoClimate Shrink-Swell indicates potential changes in subsidence due to climate change across Great Britain. The dataset considers climate projections and associated changes in soil moisture in clay soils, alongside the geotechnical properties of the ground, to provide a long-term, modelled analysis of future susceptibility to shrink–swell subsidence for resilience and adaptation assessments.

BGS GeoClimate Shrink-Swell is a quasi-1:50 000-scale dataset, provided as vector polygon data derived from a combination of 1:50 000 geological mapping, groundwater modelling and high-resolution climate projections. The outputs are influenced by a 2 km model grid, derived from 1 km resolution CHESS-SCAPE climate data. The dataset provides a modelled historical baseline (centred on 1996) and projected periods centred on 2030 (2025–2035), 2050 (2045–2055) and 2070 (2065–2075). It includes projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, with outputs describing wetter, average and drier climate conditions using percentile-based scenarios.

For each scenario and time period, the dataset describes categories of projected susceptibility, ranging from highly unlikely to extremely likely, allowing users to understand both current baseline conditions and potential future changes. The dataset also includes difference layers to indicate the magnitude of change in susceptibility relative to the baseline.

Shrink–swell is recognised as one of the most significant geohazards across Great Britain, with increasing impacts linked to warmer, drier summers. Identifying areas of potential increased susceptibility supports architects and surveyors, planners, developers, consulting engineers, construction companies, utility providers, insurers and infrastructure managers in prioritising mitigation strategies and managing long-term risk.

BGS GeoClimate Shrink-Swell is supplied as GIS-ready vector polygon datasets, with associated attribute data describing hazard classifications. Data is typically supplied in standard GIS formats such as SHP and GDB.